AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

July 27, 2017

Corn futures closed the day with most contracts a penny to 2 1/4 cents in the green, backing off earlier gains of 4-5 cents. The drought monitor was shown to expand the area of moderate drought further into IA and NE. This morning’s export sales report showed old crop bookings of just 91,968 MT for the week of July 20, down 80.29% from last week and 79.04% lower than this time last year. In addition, new crop sales improved to 486,643 MT, a 129.47% jump from last week and 2.13% larger than the same week in 2016. New crop outstanding sales are 44.11% behind last year at this point, as a large South American crop is presenting a problem. Weekly corn shipments came in at 894,280 MT, a 14.2% decrease from a week ago and 35.19% lower than last year. YTD exports, however, are 27.79% above last year. On Thursday, China sold 258,382 MT of 2013 and 2014 corn, which was 21.4% of the 1.334 MMT offered. The International Grains Council dropped their 17/18 world corn production number 5 MMT to 1.02 BMT.

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.87 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.99 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents

May 18 Corn closed at $4.04 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents

Soybeans

July 27, 2017

Soybean futures finished Thursday trade with gains of 5 to 7 1/2 cents in most contracts. Front month soy meal was up $2.50/ton, with Aug 17 soy oil 12 points higher. In addition to the morning’s Export Sales report, the USDA announced a private export sale of 198,000 MT of soybeans for 16/17 and 66,000 MT for 17/18 to unknown destinations through their daily reporting system. Old crop soybean export sales came in at 303,368 MT, as new crop sales were reported at 531,844 MT. Total sales were 39.2% larger than this time last year but 56.8% lower than last week, which included the large Chinese delegation purchase. Soybean exports totaled 573,657 MT, 60.3% above the previous week but were 7.7% behind a year ago. Accumulated yearly exports are 19.3% above a year ago. Total soy meal sales of just 61,855 were announced, just half of the previous week. Soy oil sales were at 14,882 MT in the range of projections. Soy meal shipments ran 115,015 MT, with soy oil at 24,220 MT.

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $9.94 3/4, up 6 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $10.00, up 6 1/4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans closed at $10.07 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.19 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Aug 17 Soybean Meal closed at $322.30, up $2.50,

Aug 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.85, up $0.12

Wheat

July 27, 2017

Wheat futures settled Thursday with most KC and MPLS contracts 4 to 6 1/2 cents higher, as CBT was up 1-2 cents. The USDA reported 498,042 MT in 17/18 wheat export sales, 25.6% lower compared to last week and 1.6% behind last year. Total wheat shipments ran 476,606 MT, 13.35% lower than last week and this time last year. Exports YTD are 25.6% larger than they were at this time last year. The Spring wheat tour came to a conclusion this afternoon. The overall average for spring wehat was at 38.1 bpa vs. 45.7 bpa last year and the 5-year average of 46.8 bpa. The IGC lowered their world wheat production estimate for 17/18 3 MMT to 732 MMT.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.79 3/4, up 2 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.81, up 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.36 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents

Cattle

July 27, 2017

Live cattle futures came back to post steady to 90 cent gains on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures were up $1.35 to $1.875. The CME feeder cattle index was down 27 cents from the previous day at $151.30 on July 26. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the afternoon report, with choice boxes down 64 cents at $206.43 and select $1.21 lower at $196.66. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through Thursday was 467,000 head, 5,000 head above last week and 19,000 head larger than same week last year. Few if any cash sales were reported today, with Wednesday trade mostly $117-$118 in the North. Beef export sales were reported at 13,934 MT this morning, a 12.7% improvement over last year but 32.7% behind a year ago. Export shipments for beef came in at 15,476 MT, 4.9% larger than last week and 7.7% above last year.

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $114.300, unch,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $113.575, up $0.200,

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $114.400, up $0.425,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.825, up $1.350

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.950, up $1.875

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.250, up $1.725

Lean Hogs

July 27, 2017

Lean hog futures ended the day mixed with 2.5 to 25 cent gains in the front months and losses of 12.5 to 37.5 cents in the back months. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/25 was 60 cents lower than the previous day at $89.84. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 64 cents lower in the Thursday afternoon report, with a weighted average of $99.94. The loin and belly were slightly higher. The national base hog carcass price was 36 cents higher with a weighted average of $82.11 in the afternoon report. Week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,743,000 head through Thursday, 5,000 head more than the previous week and 39,000 over the same week in 2016. This morning’s export sales report showed pork export sales of 19,108 MT 62.8% larger wk/wk and 77.9% greater yr/yr. Pork exports for the week of July 20 were reported at 17,947 MT, 0.9 behind last week and 3.4% lower than last year.

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $82.250, up $0.250,

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $67.675, up $0.025

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $61.800, down $0.125

Cotton

July 27, 2017

Cotton futures were mostly 21 to 49 points higher on Thursday, with low traded Oct up 148 points. This morning’s Export Sales report showed old crop upland sales for July 20 at 28,293 RB, slightly higher than last week but 36.63% lower than a year ago. New crop sales of 232,592 RB were reported, as total new crop outstanding sales of 4.995 million RB are now 105.46% larger than last year. Weekly all upland cotton shipments were 326,790 RB, a 16.49% increase over last week and 80.07% above last year. The Cotlook A index for July 26 was 50 points higher at 85.00 cents/lb. On Thursday, China sold 15,700 MT of the total 29,100 MT offered at an auction of state reserves.

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 70.500, up 148 points,

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 68.890, up 49 points

May 18 Cotton closed at 68.870, up 27 points


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